Binance Prediction Market Order-Book Data: Full L2, Cadence and Limits

Why a probability tile is not enough

A displayed 60% chance says nothing about whether a buyer could acquire one contract or ten thousand at 0.60. Execution depends on the best ask, the sizes resting behind it and the levels an order must consume. The spread also determines whether the midpoint was ever directly tradable.

A backtest built from only displayed probability or last trade silently assumes unlimited liquidity at one price. Full depth replaces that assumption with the market state that was actually observed.

What each snapshot retains

• Predict.fun and Binance market identifiers for stable joins
• Bid prices and bid sizes across the observed ladder
• Ask prices and ask sizes across the observed ladder
• Normalized Up/Down outcome identity
• Exchange and collector receive timestamps in epoch milliseconds
• Capture metadata that keeps exact gaps visible

Capture cadence and interpretation

The dedicated collector samples full depth once per minute. The historical BTC 15-minute panel uses matched 04:30, 08:30 and 12:30 lifecycle checkpoints. A snapshot is the complete observed market state at that point, not a reconstruction of every add, cancel and fill between samples.

That distinction matters for queue-position models. The archive supports book walking, spread analysis, depth and state-transition research. It should not be presented as tick-by-tick matching-engine telemetry.

Using full depth in a backtest

At each strategy timestamp, select the newest snapshot available without looking forward. A market buy walks the recorded asks from best to worse until the intended size is filled; a market sell walks the bids. The size-weighted average of those consumed levels is the simulated execution price.

Keep fees, minimum order rules, latency and partial-fill assumptions separate. Full L2 removes the largest liquidity fiction, but a realistic simulator still needs explicit execution rules.

Archive start and historical limits

The standardized BTC 15-minute lifecycle archive starts June 26, 2026. Stable one-minute forward capture across tracked assets and windows starts July 26. Earlier catalogue records do not imply earlier book coverage, and on-chain settlement cannot reveal orders that never filled.