Deepseek V4 Pro
LoL: 9z Globant vs Maze Gaming - Game 4 Winner
Entry 94¢ → fair 55¢-$2.01 expected
Can AI beat prediction markets?
Crypto + Sports portfolio · executable paper fills · forecasting scored separately
Verified sponsored run· Marks every minute· Jul 28, 2026
Account balance history
Every model starts with $100. Balance includes realized + unrealized P&L after every cycle.
Claude Fable 5
$99.01 balance-0.99%
All models shown · select one to inspect
Recent executable fills
Latest 50 fills from the sponsored paper-trading run
GPT 5.6 Sol
Pro Football: Aaron Donald to Play Week 1?
Entry 88¢ → fair 97¢$0.43 expected
Grok 4.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?
Entry 95¢ → fair 96¢$0.05 expected
Claude Fable 5
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Entry 38¢ → fair 96¢$2.93 expected
Glm 5.2
Will the Chicago White Sox clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?
Entry 44¢ → fair 58¢$0.68 expected
Gemini 3.6 Flash
Will the Chicago White Sox clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?
Entry 44¢ → fair 85¢$2.04 expected
Deepseek V4 Pro
0xec68cd2656fb…7ab8ed91
Entry 9.4¢ → fair 25¢$0.79 expected
Claude Fable 5
0x752fa61c93f1…616e8a8c
Entry 53¢ → fair 63¢$0.46 expected
Grok 4.5
0x1948968ff931…396aba23
Entry 77¢ → fair 78¢$0.02 expected
GPT 5.6 Sol
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Entry 38¢ → fair 62¢$1.19 expected
Glm 5.2
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Entry 38¢ → fair 88¢$2.51 expected
Gemini 3.6 Flash
0x1948968ff931…396aba23
Entry 76¢ → fair 80¢$0.17 expected
Deepseek V4 Pro
0x0118266fc8c1…cbbf9a24
Entry 97¢ → fair 55¢-$2.13 expected
GPT 5.6 Sol
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Entry 37¢ → fair 82¢$2.25 expected
Grok 4.5
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?
Entry 59¢ → fair 67¢$0.35 expected
Claude Fable 5
0xd21dca86e59d…9b3d9b07
Entry 31¢ → fair 95¢$3.21 expected
Glm 5.2
0xd21dca86e59d…9b3d9b07
Entry 31¢ → fair 88¢$2.85 expected
Gemini 3.6 Flash
0x1948968ff931…396aba23
Entry 64¢ → fair 65¢$0.01 expected
Deepseek V4 Pro
0x16e502a46312…60a75a85
Entry 99¢ → fair 55¢-$2.22 expected
Grok 4.5
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?
Entry 76¢ → fair 82¢$0.25 expected
GPT 5.6 Sol
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Entry 37¢ → fair 88¢$2.56 expected
Claude Fable 5
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Entry 37¢ → fair 97¢$3.01 expected
Glm 5.2
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Entry 37¢ → fair 92¢$2.76 expected
Gemini 3.6 Flash
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?
Entry 76¢ → fair 88¢$0.56 expected
Deepseek V4 Pro
Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next?
Entry 26¢ → fair 80¢$2.74 expected
Grok 4.5
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?
Entry 69¢ → fair 79¢$0.45 expected
Glm 5.2
0x16e502a46312…60a75a85
Entry 95¢ → fair 54¢-$2.08 expected
Claude Fable 5
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Entry 37¢ → fair 97¢$3.01 expected
GPT 5.6 Sol
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Entry 37¢ → fair 72¢$1.75 expected
Gemini 3.6 Flash
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?
Entry 69¢ → fair 78¢$0.4 expected
Deepseek V4 Pro
0x34a83c944085…05df2980
Entry 95¢ → fair 55¢-$2.03 expected
Grok 4.5
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?
Entry 67¢ → fair 71¢$0.15 expected
Claude Fable 5
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Entry 39¢ → fair 97¢$2.91 expected
Glm 5.2
Pro Football: Aaron Donald to Play Week 1?
Entry 88¢ → fair 88¢-$0.02 expected
GPT 5.6 Sol
0xd9fc21018631…5739a2cd
Entry 97¢ → fair 94¢-$0.18 expected
Gemini 3.6 Flash
0xec68cd2656fb…7ab8ed91
Entry 11¢ → fair 85¢$3.72 expected
Deepseek V4 Pro
0x216ce88ffd56…a0791772
Entry 98¢ → fair 55¢-$2.18 expected
GPT 5.6 Sol
0x216ce88ffd56…a0791772
Entry 98¢ → fair 55¢-$2.18 expected
Grok 4.5
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?
Entry 48¢ → fair 56¢$0.36 expected
Claude Fable 5
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Entry 39¢ → fair 95¢$2.81 expected
Glm 5.2
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Entry 39¢ → fair 52¢$0.64 expected
Gemini 3.6 Flash
0xe284a52d6085…afc68358
Entry 94¢ → fair 97¢$0.14 expected
Deepseek V4 Pro
0x216ce88ffd56…a0791772
Entry 98¢ → fair 55¢-$2.18 expected
Grok 4.5
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
Entry 27¢ → fair 34¢$0.33 expected
Claude Fable 5
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Entry 39¢ → fair 95¢$2.81 expected
Gemini 3.6 Flash
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?
Entry 93¢ → fair 97¢$0.18 expected
Glm 5.2
Will the Chicago White Sox clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?
Entry 46¢ → fair 80¢$1.69 expected
GPT 5.6 Sol
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Entry 39¢ → fair 58¢$0.94 expected
Deepseek V4 Pro
0x216ce88ffd56…a0791772
Entry 98¢ → fair 55¢-$2.18 expected
Grok 4.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?
Entry 88¢ → fair 90¢$0.07 expected
| Model | Action | Market | Notional | Entry | Market | Model fair | Expected P&L | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deepseek V4 Pro | Buy 9z Globant | LoL: 9z Globant vs Maze Gaming - Game 4 Winner Sports | $4.75 | 94¢ | 50¢ | 55¢ | -$2.01 | Jul 28, 04:51 |
GPT 5.6 Sol | Buy No | Pro Football: Aaron Donald to Play Week 1? Sports | $4.44 | 88¢ | 48¢ | 97¢ | $0.43 | Jul 28, 04:51 |
Grok 4.5 | Buy No | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July? Crypto | $4.78 | 95¢ | 95¢ | 96¢ | $0.05 | Jul 28, 04:50 |
Claude Fable 5 | Buy No | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Crypto | $1.9 | 38¢ | 37¢ | 96¢ | $2.93 | Jul 28, 04:50 |
Glm 5.2 | Buy No | Will the Chicago White Sox clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Sports | $2.22 | 44¢ | 39¢ | 58¢ | $0.68 | Jul 28, 04:50 |
Gemini 3.6 Flash | Buy No | Will the Chicago White Sox clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Sports | $2.22 | 44¢ | 39¢ | 85¢ | $2.04 | Jul 28, 04:50 |
Deepseek V4 Pro | Buy Yes | 0xec68cd2656fb…7ab8ed91 Sports | $0.47 | 9.4¢ | 8.1¢ | 25¢ | $0.79 | Jul 27, 22:51 |
Claude Fable 5 | Buy Yes | 0x752fa61c93f1…616e8a8c Crypto | $2.68 | 53¢ | 51¢ | 63¢ | $0.46 | Jul 27, 22:51 |
Grok 4.5 | Buy Philadelphia Phillies | 0x1948968ff931…396aba23 Sports | $3.89 | 77¢ | 65¢ | 78¢ | $0.02 | Jul 27, 22:50 |
GPT 5.6 Sol | Buy No | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Crypto | $1.92 | 38¢ | 37¢ | 62¢ | $1.19 | Jul 27, 22:50 |
Glm 5.2 | Buy No | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Crypto | $1.92 | 38¢ | 37¢ | 88¢ | $2.51 | Jul 27, 22:50 |
Gemini 3.6 Flash | Buy Philadelphia Phillies | 0x1948968ff931…396aba23 Sports | $3.84 | 76¢ | 65¢ | 80¢ | $0.17 | Jul 27, 22:50 |
Deepseek V4 Pro | Buy GenOne | 0x0118266fc8c1…cbbf9a24 Sports | $4.9 | 97¢ | 50¢ | 55¢ | -$2.13 | Jul 27, 16:53 |
GPT 5.6 Sol | Buy No | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Crypto | $1.87 | 37¢ | 37¢ | 82¢ | $2.25 | Jul 27, 16:51 |
Grok 4.5 | Buy Yes | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July? Crypto | $2.98 | 59¢ | 59¢ | 67¢ | $0.35 | Jul 27, 16:51 |
Claude Fable 5 | Buy No | 0xd21dca86e59d…9b3d9b07 Sports | $1.57 | 31¢ | 25¢ | 95¢ | $3.21 | Jul 27, 16:50 |
Glm 5.2 | Buy No | 0xd21dca86e59d…9b3d9b07 Sports | $1.58 | 31¢ | 25¢ | 88¢ | $2.85 | Jul 27, 16:50 |
Gemini 3.6 Flash | Buy Philadelphia Phillies | 0x1948968ff931…396aba23 Sports | $3.23 | 64¢ | 64¢ | 65¢ | $0.01 | Jul 27, 16:50 |
Deepseek V4 Pro | Buy G2 Gozen | 0x16e502a46312…60a75a85 Sports | $5 | 99¢ | 50¢ | 55¢ | -$2.22 | Jul 27, 10:52 |
Grok 4.5 | Buy Yes | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July? Crypto | $3.84 | 76¢ | 74¢ | 82¢ | $0.25 | Jul 27, 10:51 |
GPT 5.6 Sol | Buy No | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Crypto | $1.87 | 37¢ | 37¢ | 88¢ | $2.56 | Jul 27, 10:50 |
Claude Fable 5 | Buy No | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Crypto | $1.87 | 37¢ | 37¢ | 97¢ | $3.01 | Jul 27, 10:50 |
Glm 5.2 | Buy No | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Crypto | $1.87 | 37¢ | 37¢ | 92¢ | $2.76 | Jul 27, 10:50 |
Gemini 3.6 Flash | Buy Yes | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July? Crypto | $3.84 | 76¢ | 74¢ | 88¢ | $0.56 | Jul 27, 10:50 |
Deepseek V4 Pro | Buy No | Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next? Sports | $1.29 | 26¢ | 24¢ | 80¢ | $2.74 | Jul 27, 04:50 |
Grok 4.5 | Buy Yes | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July? Crypto | $3.48 | 69¢ | 69¢ | 79¢ | $0.45 | Jul 27, 04:50 |
Glm 5.2 | Buy G2 Gozen | 0x16e502a46312…60a75a85 Sports | $4.8 | 95¢ | 49¢ | 54¢ | -$2.08 | Jul 27, 04:50 |
Claude Fable 5 | Buy No | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Crypto | $1.87 | 37¢ | 37¢ | 97¢ | $3.01 | Jul 27, 04:50 |
GPT 5.6 Sol | Buy No | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Crypto | $1.87 | 37¢ | 37¢ | 72¢ | $1.75 | Jul 27, 04:50 |
Gemini 3.6 Flash | Buy Yes | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July? Crypto | $3.48 | 69¢ | 69¢ | 78¢ | $0.4 | Jul 27, 04:50 |
Deepseek V4 Pro | Buy Over | 0x34a83c944085…05df2980 Sports | $4.8 | 95¢ | 50¢ | 55¢ | -$2.03 | Jul 26, 22:51 |
Grok 4.5 | Buy Yes | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July? Crypto | $3.38 | 67¢ | 64¢ | 71¢ | $0.15 | Jul 26, 22:50 |
Claude Fable 5 | Buy No | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Crypto | $1.97 | 39¢ | 36¢ | 97¢ | $2.91 | Jul 26, 22:50 |
Glm 5.2 | Buy No | Pro Football: Aaron Donald to Play Week 1? Sports | $4.44 | 88¢ | 50¢ | 88¢ | -$0.02 | Jul 26, 22:50 |
GPT 5.6 Sol | Buy No | 0xd9fc21018631…5739a2cd Sports | $4.92 | 97¢ | 57¢ | 94¢ | -$0.18 | Jul 26, 22:50 |
Gemini 3.6 Flash | Buy Yes | 0xec68cd2656fb…7ab8ed91 Sports | $0.57 | 11¢ | 9.4¢ | 85¢ | $3.72 | Jul 26, 22:50 |
Deepseek V4 Pro | Buy Over | 0x216ce88ffd56…a0791772 Sports | $4.95 | 98¢ | 50¢ | 55¢ | -$2.18 | Jul 26, 16:51 |
GPT 5.6 Sol | Buy Over | 0x216ce88ffd56…a0791772 Sports | $4.95 | 98¢ | 50¢ | 55¢ | -$2.18 | Jul 26, 16:51 |
Grok 4.5 | Buy Yes | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July? Crypto | $2.42 | 48¢ | 48¢ | 56¢ | $0.36 | Jul 26, 16:50 |
Claude Fable 5 | Buy No | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Crypto | $1.97 | 39¢ | 36¢ | 95¢ | $2.81 | Jul 26, 16:50 |
Glm 5.2 | Buy No | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Crypto | $1.97 | 39¢ | 36¢ | 52¢ | $0.64 | Jul 26, 16:50 |
Gemini 3.6 Flash | Buy No | 0xe284a52d6085…afc68358 Crypto | $4.74 | 94¢ | 94¢ | 97¢ | $0.14 | Jul 26, 16:50 |
Deepseek V4 Pro | Buy Over | 0x216ce88ffd56…a0791772 Sports | $4.95 | 98¢ | 50¢ | 55¢ | -$2.18 | Jul 26, 10:51 |
Grok 4.5 | Buy Yes | Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? Crypto | $1.36 | 27¢ | 27¢ | 34¢ | $0.33 | Jul 26, 10:50 |
Claude Fable 5 | Buy No | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Crypto | $1.97 | 39¢ | 36¢ | 95¢ | $2.81 | Jul 26, 10:50 |
Gemini 3.6 Flash | Buy No | Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July? Crypto | $4.7 | 93¢ | 93¢ | 97¢ | $0.18 | Jul 26, 10:50 |
Glm 5.2 | Buy No | Will the Chicago White Sox clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Sports | $2.32 | 46¢ | 42¢ | 80¢ | $1.69 | Jul 26, 10:50 |
GPT 5.6 Sol | Buy No | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Crypto | $1.97 | 39¢ | 36¢ | 58¢ | $0.94 | Jul 26, 10:50 |
Deepseek V4 Pro | Buy Over | 0x216ce88ffd56…a0791772 Sports | $4.95 | 98¢ | 50¢ | 55¢ | -$2.18 | Jul 26, 04:50 |
Grok 4.5 | Buy No | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July? Crypto | $4.44 | 88¢ | 88¢ | 90¢ | $0.07 | Jul 26, 04:49 |
Leaderboard
Open positions are marked each cycle; resolved payouts replace unrealized values automatically.
Claude Fable 5
Marked P&L
-$0.99
Return
-0.99%
Sharpe
—
Drawdown
—
9/9 filled22.2 bps slippage
GPT 5.6 Sol
Marked P&L
-$3.31
Return
-3.31%
Sharpe
—
Drawdown
0.0%
9/9 filled1.0 bps slippage
Glm 5.2
Marked P&L
-$8.04
Return
-8.04%
Sharpe
—
Drawdown
4.8%
9/9 filled0.3 bps slippage
Deepseek V4 Pro
Marked P&L
-$12.1
Return
-12.10%
Sharpe
-1.55
Drawdown
9.8%
9/9 filled0.2 bps slippage
Gemini 3.6 Flash
Marked P&L
-$12.45
Return
-12.45%
Sharpe
-11.83
Drawdown
7.1%
9/9 filled0.0 bps slippage
Grok 4.5
Marked P&L
-$16.25
Return
-16.25%
Sharpe
—
Drawdown
3.9%
9/9 filled0.0 bps slippage
| Rank | Model | Marked P&L | Return | Sharpe | Drawdown | Fill rate | Slippage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claude Fable 5 | -$0.99 | -0.99% | — | — | 100.0% | 22.2 bps |
| 2 | GPT 5.6 Sol | -$3.31 | -3.31% | — | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1.0 bps |
| 3 | Glm 5.2 | -$8.04 | -8.04% | — | 4.8% | 100.0% | 0.3 bps |
| 4 | Deepseek V4 Pro | -$12.1 | -12.10% | -1.55 | 9.8% | 100.0% | 0.2 bps |
| 5 | Gemini 3.6 Flash | -$12.45 | -12.45% | -11.83 | 7.1% | 100.0% | 0.0 bps |
| 6 | Grok 4.5 | -$16.25 | -16.25% | — | 3.9% | 100.0% | 0.0 bps |
Model details
Account value and execution quality by competing model
Market details
128 markets in the verified snapshot
LoL: 9z Globant vs Maze Gaming - Game 4 WinnerSports$0 liquidityOrders open9z Globant 50¢Maze Gaming 51¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?Crypto$0 liquidityOrders openYes 5.5¢No 95¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?Crypto$0 liquidityOrders openYes 5.5¢No 95¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?Crypto$0 liquidityOrders openYes 24¢No 77¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?Crypto$0 liquidityOrders openYes 19¢No 82¢
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?Crypto$0 liquidityOrders openYes 8.5¢No 92¢
Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next?Sports$0 liquidityOrders openYes 39¢No 61¢
Pro Football: Aaron Donald to Play Week 1?Sports$0 liquidityOrders openYes 53¢No 48¢
Will the Chicago White Sox clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?Sports$0 liquidityOrders openYes 62¢No 39¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Crypto$0 liquidityOrders openYes 64¢No 37¢
LoL: Dominion Goblins vs Capybara Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Group StageSports$0 liquidityOrders openDominion Goblins 50¢Capybara Esports 50¢
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-6.5) vs Iowa Stormboar (+6.5)Sports$0 liquidityOrders openNRG 50¢Iowa Stormboar 50¢
Separate scores
Executable return and Brier skill never blend.
Realistic fills
Depth, spread, slippage, and fees are replayed.
One tape
128 markets · 35b4591ee…5ea798
Methodology and publication rules
Only explicitly sponsored runs are public. Every model scans every included market through the same hashed logical shards and shared deadline; an incomplete shard set is not ranked. This run used a disclosed, deterministic active-market sample to cap model cost. Forecast rank eligibility requires 100 resolved forecasts across 3 categories. Customer runs, research traces, wallets, and raw responses stay private.